Bayesian Multilevel Regulatory Scoring Framework for Cross-Jurisdictional Policy Convergence: A Structural Equation Approach to Institutional Compliance Mapping

Abstract

Regulatory divergence across multi-jurisdictional governance architectures presents persistent challenges for supranational policy harmonization, particularly within heterogeneous institutional environments. This study develops a Bayesian multilevel regulatory scoring framework (BMRSF) integrated with structural equation modeling (SEM) to quantify compliance trajectories and forecast convergence pathways across fifty-three legislative domains. Drawing on longitudinal panel data from thirty-one OECD and non-OECD member states (2010–2023), the framework identifies latent institutional variables mediating regulatory diffusion. Findings indicate that administrative capacity indexing and principal-agent alignment coefficients jointly explain 67.4% of observed compliance variance. The proposed BMRSF demonstrates superior predictive validity over conventional regulatory impact assessment instruments, offering policymakers a scalable, data-driven diagnostic tool for iterative governance recalibration and inter-jurisdictional policy alignment optimization.